June Market Action is out. It’s posted here. As expected, pending sales were waaay down, though still up for the year, overall. Days on market spiked in late April, then crashed through that date (offers rush in late April) expect that to rise steeply for July’s report.
Total inventory is slightly lower ytd than last year, given the quality of the inventory, (pretty good) I can guess at a couple of things. We might have chewed though the “easy foreclosure” properties and be delving into the “hanging on for dear life” inventory……I’ve also noticed the average ask for the most recent new listings have been over $500,000…..also, potentially indicative of something more sinister.
Good news this month comes from others, smarter than I looking deeper into the SD issue. It turns out, with limited early data arriving, that the average home value drop would have to be off 62% or more, before home owners decide that an SD is the way to go…..That’s a long, long way…..especially around here. Score one for moral fortitude.
Interestingly, when you calculate the total home value in the US against the total mortgage debt outstanding, (and this calculation has been done by a couple of sources, so I’m mostly reposting) what apparently shows up is this tidbit….that given the value of the housing inventory in the United States, the indebtedness is too high, indicating an erosion of equity, which is an indicator of increasing foreclosure pressure. (We didn’t need a macro-economics calculation of tell us that, but anyway……)
That’s certainly a big picture view, to be sure, and includes the traditional wipeout zones,(CA, AZ, NEV and FLA.) We are not one of those areas, but comes troubling data from a couple of blog sources that Oregon is the #3 foreclosure state in the country…..I’m not sure of #3 of what (per capita? Rate per 100?) I went and looked at Realty Trac’s heat maps for Oregon, and we show 10 foreclosures for June, (1 in every 891 units, which is a screwy calc, for a whole number of reasons…)……So, moderate. Not sure where this is coming from but……….Oh wait, I figured it out…. It’s from This Article…
Ok, now that I’ve read it….it’s #3 in the rate of filing….ummm..nevermind. That was totally overhyped. Late to the party, still on the steep part of the curve…..
Which brings me to my next point. The media, blogosphere and others are tweaking the scare-o-meter too much. Don’t get me wrong, It’s bad, it’s tough, and it’s going to be a tough and long, and hard road, but claiming we are #3 in the nation for foreclosures is just patently inaccurate, and it’s meant to scare people. Unfortunately, it’s working. (see: “birds on a wire” below)
Ok, back to Hood River.
Regardless, however, the price reductions have begun, as the sellers are seeing the Summer wane, and now pivot to a strategy for Fall. Rent or Reduce? That is the question. It’s about 50/50 now, but I know that buyers are out there, sitting, watching, and waiting. I refer to it as a group of “birds on a wire” (Forgive me, anyone whom I’ve told this to in the last week) They will all sit there, until one of them makes a move, then they’ll all move at once…..The interesting thing is this, there are more birds than there are properties they are interested in, so when one moves, expect that all of them will move at once……just in a specific section of the market (I’m not telling what part, but you could easily intuit it.) but I can assure you they are there, and they are ready for the signal. Problem is, I’m not the guy in charge of the signal…..
So, expect soft pricing, and low rates for the rest of the Summer, with a random vaporization of a segment of the market around…..first week of august. Earlier if someone clues in and jumps on the best deal first (which happens to be one of my listings! Yipee!)
Lets all go get outside and on the water. Don’t have to worry so much out there……See you next month.