Copper West Properties » Hood River Mortgage Trends

The View From Here ~ Hood River Oregon Real Estate Update, February 2010

mauimeyer — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 23:31:01 +0000

….Been a decent January for us, but there’s still trouble on the horizon. New disclosure laws went into effect, specifically Good Faith Estimates and a SLEW of new reforms. I am not sure at all that any of it helps, but after a long talk and some research, I can say this……I can see where they are wanting to head, but they didn’t get there with the current GFE and closing documents……

I think they’ll get there, but the revisions, can’t come soon enough.

Near as I can figure, a mortgage broker will need a worksheet on the front end to explain all the terms to a borrower. Then they will have the required GFE (which they can’t change much, and in some spots its just indecipherable, but I KNOW the people responsible for this already know this) and then they will have to have a settlement sheet to explain what the GFE really says and what the borrowers need to do in order to close.

Oh, and you can’t get a GFE anymore without an actual property, and an actual purchase price….so, you most likely have to get a “quote worksheet” when you get preapproved, do the deal, get through inspections, and THEN fire up the mortgage brokers to quote rates and closing costs for you…..

Bottom line, If your Realtor can’t explain this stuff to you, get another Realtor. As of right now, I think I could explain it to you….but I honestly couldn’t swear it. Don’t fire me!

This and a few things will push out closings for a bit, and then they’ll snap back to the usual 30 days after awhile. Why, I just closed one today that too exactly 29 days….clean and simple. (actually they had the home inspection completed before the offer, so…..that was cheating a bit.

Banks are still defending their liquidity, and I’m finally seeing big media pick up on the fact that the banks are still playing a bit of a shell game. They still have to lend, however, so they are being picky, picky, picky……

Our local bank bit the farm this week too. Not that it was a huge surprise, but…..it was a big surprise.

I fully suspect the home owner’s tax credit program to be extended, things are just not healthy enough yet. I suspect that the secondary market buying programs will continue as well, probably until the end of 2010. That’s just me guessing, but I’m seeing a recovery, but not an improvement. (Recovery= market reassembles itself with moderately sane people in it trading at arms length. Improvement=anything resembling firming, like price uptick, volume uptick for multiple months, of heaven forbid, multiple buyers again. I can dream can’t I?)

There seems to have been another round of capitulation in the market too, in January. Price reductions have happened, but when there’s no market (or the sector is hibernating) there’s just no market. And it opens the door to the other scary question (what’s the value of a property when there’s no market?) I suspect this will continue until March, when all those discounted places will get snapped up, and we’ll have another round of firming, there will be an even bigger flush of new properties, and then….well, you get the picture.

Hey, at least stuff is selling.

About the kookiest thing to come out of the prior RESPA reforms (actually the HVCC) is the completely random lowest cost provider Appraisers. In a market where the HVCC is supposed to reduce the chance of coercion, I’m commonly asked by appraisers who are not from the local area what good comps are for their target homes. They don’t know or understand the market, and subsequently come up with some of the most random valuations I’ve ever seen. Apparently, being a local appraiser doesn’t count for anything anymore. It’s pretty hilarious, and a glaring flaw in the theory versus reality. I’m confident it will change over time, as a lot of the appraisers from out of the area have determined that the travel time is too great, and have given up.

And finally, check out the FB page for Copperwest. There are three good topics on there, including the morality of walking away, a recent report indicating that housing sizes are shrinking, but that the kitchen is still king, and…..the 2009 Home remodelers report, which tells you what you can expect to get out or any remodel by type and region, great stuff at Copperwest.com, and It’s going to be even Bettter Next Month!

File under “….you know, I’ve never thought of it that way….”

mauimeyer — Sat, 09 Jan 2010 22:08:36 +0000

When a business walks away from a building, somehow it’s for the good of the investors. When a person does it….it’s a deep flaw in personal integrity. How’s that again?

Great article by Roger Lowenstein. Think about it….

The View From Here ~ Hood River Oregon Real Estate Update, January 2010

mauimeyer — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 23:01:21 +0000

Sales took a total nosedive in the second half of November around here, seems like there was a “cooling off” period around the uncertainty of the home buyer tax credit expiration. Now that it has been re-instated, it seems like business has picked up again, though it is just so tough to get through underwriting! My advice? Manage your life to your credit score for the next couple of years, and learn how to assemble a running financial statement (which is actually kind of fun, and certainly helpful) and try to automate and simplify your purchasing. (read: ONE CREDIT CARD) It certainly helps when it comes time to present a picture of your financial situation to someone else………..
Last week I got a look at the “T2” option arm reset chart, which was sent to me by about four people, but surprisingly, no Canadians (Rick, are you on vacation?) While looking eerily similar to the Alt-A reset chart, I also noticed that the scale was smaller. I’d bet that if you put the sub-prime, alt-A and option arm charts on the same graph, the Option arm resets would be dwarfed by sub-prime, and similar to alt –A. Just guessing…..(OK I looked… The Peak is higher on Option Arms, but the volume is less……)

I think these are going to be dealt with by recasting, or placing them somewhere else on the balance sheet (That is not distressed) so they can let them through at a trickle, and try to limit the damage…..I cant tell you how many people are technically in default on loans around here and their bank is doing basically nothing. If you are in financial trouble in this market, I’d bet you could effectively “homebrew” your own restructuring yourself, before the banks even get around to processing your foreclosure.

This month also marks the annual remodeler’s report . I used to follow this report (but stopped for a number of years, while “remodeling” was passe), which is used to help people decide how much money a remodel will add to their properties value. Since the Last time I looked at it, it’s gone quite high tech! The Link to it is located at Copperwest.com here. It breaks stuff out by City, region and project, including trend indicators….total timesink, be careful!

2010 is looking to be a recovery year. Still brutal, I’m sure, but hopefully we’ll get better as the year continues on, and actually be posting news about decent markets and volumes……That would be a long time coming!

Happy New Year!

The View From Here, Hood River Oregon June 2009

mauimeyer — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 17:05:47 +0000

This Month in the View video:

Market picked up, only to be shelved by a spike in interest rates

5% is still a great rate, but since payment is so closely tied to purchase power, there has been some struggling to get once easy deals through.

The May Market Action report shows that our inventory is down in Hood River Real Estate. I question the trend because it feels busier for us, but June will probably clarify things

There’s an apparent average home price reduction in houses in Hood River, but the data is more a function of the type of homes being sold, not the prices. Things are clustering around the $250,000 to $300,000 price range because that is what is easy to get through under a normal “conforming loan”

However, price reductions are starting to make an appearance in Hood River Real Estate for this Season. Customers are preemptively dropping prices to make sure their houses sell this Summer. For example, the Frankton Estate dropped 10% to make sure it was the best in class for this price range. Slightly ominous sign, but coupled with the lower inventory, I’m hoping we’ll get down to 10 or 9 months worth of inventory here before too long.

A Good Mortgage Read……

mauimeyer — Fri, 29 May 2009 05:40:51 +0000

My Friend Ron Kurahara was talking to me about the spike yesterday in mortgage rates. I’m a pretty strong beliver in the inflation scenarios, so I was listening. When I got back to my computer, Another Friend had sent me this commentaryoff the Mr. Mortgage Blog. It’s about what that spike actually meant. I can tell you, I’m living about ahlf that blog post, so it’s very succint, and very Accurate.

Check it out. And if you like the link, share it off our site or tweet it, or otherwise send some props our way……Our SEO work could use it!