This month on the view sees a slight increase in activity, primarily around qualifying tax credit buyers. There certainly are a few of them out there.

Inventory on select properties is beginning to look thin, and (gasp!) do I sense a price uptick? Nah, not really, but there do seem to be some gaps in some areas. Unfortunately, that used to mean people would turn to properties with “flaws” and then make offers, but these days, the buyers are still waiting around…..

Many Sellers who don’t have to sell, still aren’t. That will certainly cause “select” inventory to be tight. This tightness even leads to multiple offers, which will perhaps lead to….(Gasp!) Price uptick?!…….

Nah, headfake again.

It’s a bit funny, we have Buyers, we have Sellers. Select Seller’s properties aren’t fitting Buyers filters, so we have lots of inventory that is just sitting…………Buyer thinks they should “get a deal” and wait for the best property, select Seller thinks, “I don’t really have to/want to sell” and sits on their pricing. Some Sellers, however, need to sell their property……..and eventually get there, but in the process, turn off the select Seller even more……Not sure where that ultimately leads……………Tight select inventory, soft prices. Hmmmmm.

I suspect the Tax Credit will again be extended until the end of the year, there’s just too much weakness out there still. It’s made it’s way into the HR market, but the damage is still contained…. I still have my concerns about the Balance sheets of many banks and their foreclosures, but that’s finally been picked up in the national news, so I’ll lay off that topic for awhile.

Unless there’s a giant flush of inventory on the market starting in April (an event that commonly occurs) we are going to start seeing some choppy issues in pricing with a bias towards strength. It probably wont lead to anything (see above) and there’s a school of thought that says that will be the “market action” for the entire year. I’m not that much of a doomsayer, but I’m certainly ready for it. A double dip recession is still a very real possibility………

The Reformed Good Faith Estimate forms are apparently, not open to revision for the next year. Ouch. That’s going to confuse a lot of people. Get ready for it. It will probably create a whole new way of doing business for the mortgage brokers. Currently, a few of them have attempted a run at a 30 day close…but so far, I don’t think anyone has made it…..Still, expect 40-45 days for just about any close except the most vanilla….(20% down, newer property with good comps and the inspector waiting to do the inspection the day you ink the deal….and I think 30 days is doable)

Summer looks to be reasonable for us, and for Hood River. Early season warm days have brought everyone out of hibernation, and it’s good to see the snowbirds returning….Nice to get out in our garden too! See you next month when we’ll have a good idea of the Summer inventory levels. If they are low, prices will stiffen. If they are high………..look out below! (Select Inventory depending…..)

I think they’ll get there, but the revisions, can’t come soon enough.

Near as I can figure, a mortgage broker will need a worksheet on the front end to explain all the terms to a borrower. Then they will have the required GFE (which they can’t change much, and in some spots its just indecipherable, but I KNOW the people responsible for this already know this) and then they will have to have a settlement sheet to explain what the GFE really says and what the borrowers need to do in order to close.

Oh, and you can’t get a GFE anymore without an actual property, and an actual purchase price….so, you most likely have to get a “quote worksheet” when you get preapproved, do the deal,  get through inspections, and THEN fire up the mortgage brokers to quote rates and closing costs for you…..

Bottom line, If your Realtor can’t explain this stuff to you, get another Realtor. As of right now, I think I could explain it to you….but I honestly couldn’t swear it. Don’t fire me!

This and a few things will push out closings for a bit, and then they’ll snap back to the usual 30 days after awhile. Why, I just closed one today that too exactly 29 days….clean and simple. (actually they had the home inspection completed before the offer, so…..that was cheating a bit.

Banks are still defending their liquidity, and I’m finally seeing big media pick up on the fact that the banks are still playing a bit of a shell game.  They still have to lend, however, so they are being picky, picky, picky……

Our local bank bit the farm this week too. Not that it was a huge surprise, but…..it was a big surprise.

I fully suspect the home owner’s tax credit program to be extended, things are just not healthy enough yet. I suspect that the secondary market buying programs will continue as well, probably until the end of 2010.  That’s just me guessing, but I’m seeing a recovery, but not an improvement. (Recovery= market reassembles itself with moderately sane people in it trading at arms length. Improvement=anything resembling firming, like price uptick, volume uptick for multiple months, of heaven forbid, multiple buyers again. I can dream can’t I?)

There seems to have been another round of capitulation in the market too, in January. Price reductions have happened, but when there’s no market (or the sector is hibernating) there’s just no market. And it opens the door to the other scary question (what’s the value of a property when there’s no market?) I suspect this will continue until March, when all those discounted places will get snapped up, and we’ll have another round of firming, there will be an even bigger flush of new properties, and then….well, you get the picture.

Hey, at least stuff is selling.

About the kookiest thing to come out of the prior RESPA reforms (actually the HVCC) is the completely random lowest cost provider Appraisers. In a market where the HVCC is supposed to reduce the chance of coercion, I’m commonly asked by appraisers who are not from the local area what good comps are for their target homes. They don’t know or understand the market, and subsequently come up with some of the most random valuations I’ve ever seen. Apparently, being a local appraiser doesn’t count for anything anymore. It’s pretty hilarious, and a glaring flaw in the theory versus reality. I’m confident it will change over time, as a lot of the appraisers from out of the area have determined that the travel time is too great, and have given up.

And finally, check out the FB page for Copperwest. There are three good topics on there, including the morality of walking away, a recent report indicating that housing sizes are shrinking, but that the kitchen is still king, and…..the 2009 Home remodelers report, which tells you what you can expect to get out or any remodel by type and region, great stuff at Copperwest.com, and It’s going to be even Bettter Next Month!