….Been a decent January for us, but there’s still trouble on the horizon. New disclosure laws went into effect, specifically Good Faith Estimates and a SLEW of new reforms. I am not sure at all that any of it helps, but after a long talk and some research, I can say this……I can see where they are wanting to head, but they didn’t get there with the current GFE and closing documents……

I think they’ll get there, but the revisions, can’t come soon enough.

Near as I can figure, a mortgage broker will need a worksheet on the front end to explain all the terms to a borrower. Then they will have the required GFE (which they can’t change much, and in some spots its just indecipherable, but I KNOW the people responsible for this already know this) and then they will have to have a settlement sheet to explain what the GFE really says and what the borrowers need to do in order to close.

Oh, and you can’t get a GFE anymore without an actual property, and an actual purchase price….so, you most likely have to get a “quote worksheet” when you get preapproved, do the deal,  get through inspections, and THEN fire up the mortgage brokers to quote rates and closing costs for you…..

Bottom line, If your Realtor can’t explain this stuff to you, get another Realtor. As of right now, I think I could explain it to you….but I honestly couldn’t swear it. Don’t fire me!

This and a few things will push out closings for a bit, and then they’ll snap back to the usual 30 days after awhile. Why, I just closed one today that too exactly 29 days….clean and simple. (actually they had the home inspection completed before the offer, so…..that was cheating a bit.

Banks are still defending their liquidity, and I’m finally seeing big media pick up on the fact that the banks are still playing a bit of a shell game.  They still have to lend, however, so they are being picky, picky, picky……

Our local bank bit the farm this week too. Not that it was a huge surprise, but…..it was a big surprise.

I fully suspect the home owner’s tax credit program to be extended, things are just not healthy enough yet. I suspect that the secondary market buying programs will continue as well, probably until the end of 2010.  That’s just me guessing, but I’m seeing a recovery, but not an improvement. (Recovery= market reassembles itself with moderately sane people in it trading at arms length. Improvement=anything resembling firming, like price uptick, volume uptick for multiple months, of heaven forbid, multiple buyers again. I can dream can’t I?)

There seems to have been another round of capitulation in the market too, in January. Price reductions have happened, but when there’s no market (or the sector is hibernating) there’s just no market. And it opens the door to the other scary question (what’s the value of a property when there’s no market?) I suspect this will continue until March, when all those discounted places will get snapped up, and we’ll have another round of firming, there will be an even bigger flush of new properties, and then….well, you get the picture.

Hey, at least stuff is selling.

About the kookiest thing to come out of the prior RESPA reforms (actually the HVCC) is the completely random lowest cost provider Appraisers. In a market where the HVCC is supposed to reduce the chance of coercion, I’m commonly asked by appraisers who are not from the local area what good comps are for their target homes. They don’t know or understand the market, and subsequently come up with some of the most random valuations I’ve ever seen. Apparently, being a local appraiser doesn’t count for anything anymore. It’s pretty hilarious, and a glaring flaw in the theory versus reality. I’m confident it will change over time, as a lot of the appraisers from out of the area have determined that the travel time is too great, and have given up.

And finally, check out the FB page for Copperwest. There are three good topics on there, including the morality of walking away, a recent report indicating that housing sizes are shrinking, but that the kitchen is still king, and…..the 2009 Home remodelers report, which tells you what you can expect to get out or any remodel by type and region, great stuff at Copperwest.com, and It’s going to be even Bettter Next Month!

First, we have a nice Facebook page now, find us on the web, or visit Copperwest.com and the feed from FB on the Front page. We like Facebook because we can quickly post new listings, and comments on the web, and it gets broadcast easily. It also pushes to twitter, where you can follow us at copperwestHR.

Things are quieting down; the last of the fall push is getting through. There are still buyers in the marketplace, buy they seem to be doing reconnaissance for early January. Lenders continue to be harsh, and I’m starting to determine that there is some sort of secondary market negotiation going on. It appears that one day a lender will let something through without a comment, and on another, they will call it out. I can tell the items that are getting called out are not related to any sort of government guaranteed program, so I’m left thinking that it’s some sort of other underwriting standard, especially with the appearance of randomness. Take away? MAKE SURE you have a strong lending package before you start looking for a home, and MAKE SURE you are looking at homes that you and your broker feel is a quality home, within the zoning of the area, and that it has at least a reasonable valid reason for being there (often called “properly entitled”)

The tax credit extension was a welcome sight, but it does appear that most of the people who could have taken advantage of the program, actually did. The new program (for current homeowners) that allows up to $6,500 in tax credit for a qualifying transaction will hopefully drive some spring sales…..

Everyone is looking to the Holidays, and getting ready for 2010, however, listing volume jumped a bit as new properties refilled the inventories. Pricing, however, remains soft.

One interesting development I read about this week is the I-banks out of New York have been buying portfolios of loans, and then segmenting them into risk groupings, and selling them off. Sounds a bit like the mortgage pools that caused the problem in the first place, but this seems to be moving the inventory out of the marketplace, which ultimately, is a good thing…..

For this month, I think we’ll take our outlook out of “prices are firming, but not rising” back down a small notch to “prices are slightly declining” although it’s a close call. Mostly seasonal…………

See you next month!

The Market continues to improve, however slightly. Prices have moderated by a bunch! Given the activity in the market, (being so price point oriented) has caused a dip in the average and median home price. I did notice, however, that the look and feel of that correction sort of maps to 2008. Inventory in months was at 14 (high, yes I know) then it went to over 30, then it came back to about 14. Same thing with average price, which is down 13% year over year. Looks like a cleanout to me…
Closings dropped in September, while pendings went up. You could probably call this a marker on the HERA and HVCC issues, as most deals are now between 30-45 days………
So, the long and short of it is that this is looking a lot like 2008, but with an upward bias, not a downward one……..
Inside the market, Average sale price got mauled by the lower price points in both Hood River Westside and City, down 6% and 18% year over year. Additionally a big drop off of pending sales, YTD in the City (off 32%) to the benefit of the Westside (Up 30%)  Again, some of that is sample size, but Downtown has flown higher in the past, and this would probably mark a return to earth on the values.

So that’s that in October. Time to settle in for a loooong haul until next spring. There’s some commercial activity as people look for projects, assuming they have financing, etc.

The Columbia Gorge Hotel has apparently been sold, there’s talk of a couple of new projects, but it’s still lean out there for the trades. Last winter there was lots of talk of a “die-off” of some businesses. We have been in here for so long, that I think there’s still a fair bit of carnage to occur. Hopefully it won’t be us, but there’s still a decent amount of uncertainty out there…….

On the computer front we now have a Face book page, our plan is to post new listings to that page, and updates. The Copper West Facebook page is located here.
Our twitter feed is @CopperwestHR

My Personal FB page is here.
And my Twitter feed is @Mauim

I keep the personal and business accounts quite separate, so you may choose, either neither or both!

And Finally, We are now posting the Monthly Market Reports from the RMLS on our website. They are located in the newsletters section under the about us tab at Copperwest.com

Social media is quite the darling thing these days isn’t it? Has anyone figured out how to use it for Real Estate effectively? (Check out the Video)

Sure, in some big cities, I even saw a guy in vancouver who has a facebook page and all his clients fanned him…..yeah, like that will work out here.

How should social media platforms work out here in Real Estate? Here’s what I’ve been working on, and so far, it seems to be working ok for me……

1. Don’t use FB for Business, especially Real Estate business! It just doesn’t work. Far better is linked in.
2. I’ve been using twitter personally, (mauim) and I just started to real estate tweet. (copperwesthr) I can see some great use there, but I’ve not revved it up yet.

That’s as far as I’ve gotten……Social media seems like a great tool for this marketplace, it’s just how it’s deployed that matters. What really matters, though, is that going forward, you have to be conversant with Social Media platforms and networking to be effective in this day and age. A simple cell phone isn’t going to cut it anymore.
Stay Tuned!