Hood River Real Estate and Columbia Gorge Real Estate

Sales took a total nosedive in the second half of November around here, seems like there was a “cooling off” period around the uncertainty of the home buyer tax credit expiration. Now that it has been re-instated, it seems like business has picked up again, though it is just so tough to get through underwriting! My advice? Manage your life to your credit score for the next couple of years, and learn how to assemble a running financial statement (which is actually kind of fun, and certainly helpful) and try to automate and simplify your purchasing. (read: ONE CREDIT CARD) It certainly helps when it comes time to present a picture of your financial situation to someone else………..
Last week I got a look at the “T2” option arm reset chart, which was sent to me by about four people, but surprisingly, no Canadians (Rick, are you on vacation?) While looking eerily similar to the Alt-A reset chart, I also noticed that the scale was smaller. I’d bet that if you put the sub-prime, alt-A and option arm charts on the same graph, the Option arm resets would be dwarfed by sub-prime, and similar to alt –A. Just guessing…..(OK I looked… The Peak is higher on Option Arms, but the volume is less……)

I think these are going to be dealt with by recasting, or placing them somewhere else on the balance sheet (That is not distressed) so they can let them through at a trickle, and try to limit the damage…..I cant tell you how many people are technically in default on loans around here and their bank is doing basically nothing. If you are in financial trouble in this market, I’d bet you could effectively “homebrew” your own restructuring yourself, before the banks even get around to processing your foreclosure.

This month also marks the annual remodeler’s report . I used to follow this report (but stopped for a number of years, while “remodeling” was passe), which is used to help people decide how much money a remodel will add to their properties value. Since the Last time I looked at it, it’s gone quite high tech! The Link to it is located at Copperwest.com here. It breaks stuff out by City, region and project, including trend indicators….total timesink, be careful!

2010 is looking to be a recovery year. Still brutal, I’m sure, but hopefully we’ll get better as the year continues on, and actually be posting news about decent markets and volumes……That would be a long time coming!

Happy New Year!

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Overall, Hood River Real Estate has been pretty good this month. Lots of deal action, but loooower prices.

Last year, in the fall, Sellers attempted to hold onto their prices, and managed to do a pretty good job of it. This year? Different story. Sellers have capitulated, and are selling at some steep discounts. That makes it tough for those left in the market trying to sell, but it makes the Buyers very happy.

Of course, that hangover will be lasting for a long, long time, as appraisals will become tougher with this seasonal dip. I’m certain appraisers can factor in distress sales, but a number of these sales are not distress sales, they are open, free market sales, and that’s going to hurt…..

HERA and HVCC continue to be slightly problematic, but more problematic are the new bankers dealing with mortgage. Now we are returning to the old “bankers” model; you have to prove you don’t need a loan to get a loan…….

Investments are pricing at cashflow again, I’m guessing closer to 8-12%. Thankfully. Lending, however, is all but impossible. These days, its all about owner financing.

Still with all of this, it’s been a good month, and October looks strong and so does November. That leaves only one month after that to get past 2009……….

Long term forecast for the Hood River market will be flat, at best, with pockets of calamity, and a few wipeouts. Mostly, though, people seem to be keeping it together, and most of all, working together to figure things out…..All in all, survivable.

Thanks for reading! see you next month!

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Overall this month has seen a good uptick in volume, but a decrease in prices. How’s that you say?

Cash. Cash cash cash……I’ve never seen so many all cash buyers in this market. Cash being King however, means something else…….discounts. And how.

Lots of discounted offers, and lots of deal making and negotiating. How these impact comparable sales can be devastating. Look for troubling signs out in Fox Hollow, and Country club, as appraisers attempt to swallow recent sales that are 20, and 30% below the asking prices. Other markets are marking to more traditional prices as sellers finally come back to earth in Hood River.

As prices grind lower, however, more and more buyers are showing up. The first wave and,  (in my opinion) the best deals have come and gone. If this does prove to be a bottom, July and August will be the floor. Remember about a year ago when I was talking about toxic events? I think I can say that barring another toxic event, the structural instability in residential is all priced in at this point. It’s only the bleeding that’s caused by long term unemployment that’s left, and that tends to come out slowly, and over time.

I hear in Florida, Nevada and California, there’s booming business in “foreclosure tours” but not here. Here, each deal is a one off, each motivation, unique. Neighbor to neighbor, house to house, block by block and marriage by marriage, it’s all playing out on a very small, and very personal scale. This is the downside of hyper-local.

As for mortgages…….Not too many troubles on the HERA adjustments, but I’m certain we’ll see some stuff here soon. Key factor to avoiding those issues, is don’t renegotiate the contract after appraisal has been ordered, make sure you intend on closing the deal with the mortgage broker you start the process with, and allow about 4-5 days ahead of closing to begin escrow……….

September is loading up, Hoping October will be strong as well. It’s been a long spring and Summer in Hood River Real Estate, see you out here soon!