Thankfully, I’m not late to post this month………..Things have certainly been slower, so I’ve got time to catch up, that’s for sure. Weather has been amazing as well……and that’s why September is the best month of the year in Hood River!

All brokers are working this month and the buyer’s activity has been high. Year to date numbers show us selling the same units as some of our competitors, quite an accomplishment when you consider we are less than one quarter their size. Thank goodness for process.

Prices are stable to weak, with closings that occasionally firm up a price range, and others, that are destroying price ranges. Houses in the 500+ range are shrinking quickly, and we are now seeing multiple markdowns of properties that opened into the “dead zone” of 600+…..Inventory months will be dropping in the next few months, which is a traditional fall trend, but expect it to be a bit more pronounced this year.

Closings from Augusts rush are coming in, and if you are planning on doing something in Real Estate, especially refinance, PLEASE do yourself a favor and call us first, so you don’t spend $500.00 to find out your market got reset last week……I can’t tell you how often this is happening.

The constant drumbeat of price reduction has faded slightly, and in the last few weeks, the buyer’s have been overplaying their hands, much to their chagrin. Sellers are simply balking at another 15% off their already 25% marked down home, and where they don’t have to sell, they wont. Unfortunately, if they DO have to sell, it’s becoming a rare property that can get down into the correct range without going equity negative. Generally, you can look at a purchase date and get an idea. If you bought in 2005 more or less, you are a more likely candidate of getting through. 06-09 is tough, unless you came in equity heavy.

So now, the focus is on those few remaining properties that are equity heavy, but willing to deal……now, they do, however often come with those “quality defects” I’ve so often mentioned….but hey, at least there are buyers. I’d even hazard that the “confidence gap” has narrowed recently….

Foreclosure notices are now taking up a full two pages in the weekly Hood River News. Sobering. I remember when that was last the case, and it was all the way back in 1992….

I see some bright spots (like us being up 100% for the year) but it isn’t without its bare knuckle work. 4.375% 30 year fixed is the going rate, and that will certainly get someone interested, but with negotiation, appraisal, Automated Market Valuations, desk reviews, and jittery sellers, who are negotiating while they are coming to grips with “is that all I can get?” well…..

It is no country for old men, to use a movie title….. (Which was a terribly depressing movie…but very good. Who thinks of that stuff?)

October is looking weak, but traditionally we save it in the last selling week. (Which is last calendar week of September) The big test is November. We already have December in the books, so it’s a 60 day game, clock is ticking, and we are slightly behind…..

So, got to run, see you next month, Thanks for reading!

….My Lovely video camera now seems to have a conflict with my Windows 7, thus I am flummoxed. No video this month. Cut my hair and all! I might still get it posted in time….so scroll down.

This month on the view sees a slight increase in activity, primarily around qualifying tax credit buyers. There certainly are a few of them out there.

Inventory on select properties is beginning to look thin, and (gasp!) do I sense a price uptick? Nah, not really, but there do seem to be some gaps in some areas. Unfortunately, that used to mean people would turn to properties with “flaws” and then make offers, but these days, the buyers are still waiting around…..

Many Sellers who don’t have to sell, still aren’t. That will certainly cause “select” inventory to be tight. This tightness even leads to multiple offers, which will perhaps lead to….(Gasp!) Price uptick?!…….

Nah, headfake again.

It’s a bit funny, we have Buyers, we have Sellers. Select Seller’s properties aren’t fitting Buyers filters, so we have lots of inventory that is just sitting…………Buyer thinks they should “get a deal” and wait for the best property, select Seller thinks, “I don’t really have to/want to sell” and sits on their pricing. Some Sellers, however, need to sell their property……..and eventually get there, but in the process, turn off the select Seller even more……Not sure where that ultimately leads……………Tight select inventory, soft prices. Hmmmmm.

I suspect the Tax Credit will again be extended until the end of the year, there’s just too much weakness out there still. It’s made it’s way into the HR market, but the damage is still contained…. I still have my concerns about the Balance sheets of many banks and their foreclosures, but that’s finally been picked up in the national news, so I’ll lay off that topic for awhile.

Unless there’s a giant flush of inventory on the market starting in April (an event that commonly occurs) we are going to start seeing some choppy issues in pricing with a bias towards strength. It probably wont lead to anything (see above) and there’s a school of thought that says that will be the “market action” for the entire year. I’m not that much of a doomsayer, but I’m certainly ready for it. A double dip recession is still a very real possibility………

The Reformed Good Faith Estimate forms are apparently, not open to revision for the next year. Ouch. That’s going to confuse a lot of people. Get ready for it. It will probably create a whole new way of doing business for the mortgage brokers. Currently, a few of them have attempted a run at a 30 day close…but so far, I don’t think anyone has made it…..Still, expect 40-45 days for just about any close except the most vanilla….(20% down, newer property with good comps and the inspector waiting to do the inspection the day you ink the deal….and I think 30 days is doable)

Summer looks to be reasonable for us, and for Hood River. Early season warm days have brought everyone out of hibernation, and it’s good to see the snowbirds returning….Nice to get out in our garden too! See you next month when we’ll have a good idea of the Summer inventory levels. If they are low, prices will stiffen. If they are high………..look out below! (Select Inventory depending…..)

….Been a decent January for us, but there’s still trouble on the horizon. New disclosure laws went into effect, specifically Good Faith Estimates and a SLEW of new reforms. I am not sure at all that any of it helps, but after a long talk and some research, I can say this……I can see where they are wanting to head, but they didn’t get there with the current GFE and closing documents……

I think they’ll get there, but the revisions, can’t come soon enough.

Near as I can figure, a mortgage broker will need a worksheet on the front end to explain all the terms to a borrower. Then they will have the required GFE (which they can’t change much, and in some spots its just indecipherable, but I KNOW the people responsible for this already know this) and then they will have to have a settlement sheet to explain what the GFE really says and what the borrowers need to do in order to close.

Oh, and you can’t get a GFE anymore without an actual property, and an actual purchase price….so, you most likely have to get a “quote worksheet” when you get preapproved, do the deal,  get through inspections, and THEN fire up the mortgage brokers to quote rates and closing costs for you…..

Bottom line, If your Realtor can’t explain this stuff to you, get another Realtor. As of right now, I think I could explain it to you….but I honestly couldn’t swear it. Don’t fire me!

This and a few things will push out closings for a bit, and then they’ll snap back to the usual 30 days after awhile. Why, I just closed one today that too exactly 29 days….clean and simple. (actually they had the home inspection completed before the offer, so…..that was cheating a bit.

Banks are still defending their liquidity, and I’m finally seeing big media pick up on the fact that the banks are still playing a bit of a shell game.  They still have to lend, however, so they are being picky, picky, picky……

Our local bank bit the farm this week too. Not that it was a huge surprise, but…..it was a big surprise.

I fully suspect the home owner’s tax credit program to be extended, things are just not healthy enough yet. I suspect that the secondary market buying programs will continue as well, probably until the end of 2010.  That’s just me guessing, but I’m seeing a recovery, but not an improvement. (Recovery= market reassembles itself with moderately sane people in it trading at arms length. Improvement=anything resembling firming, like price uptick, volume uptick for multiple months, of heaven forbid, multiple buyers again. I can dream can’t I?)

There seems to have been another round of capitulation in the market too, in January. Price reductions have happened, but when there’s no market (or the sector is hibernating) there’s just no market. And it opens the door to the other scary question (what’s the value of a property when there’s no market?) I suspect this will continue until March, when all those discounted places will get snapped up, and we’ll have another round of firming, there will be an even bigger flush of new properties, and then….well, you get the picture.

Hey, at least stuff is selling.

About the kookiest thing to come out of the prior RESPA reforms (actually the HVCC) is the completely random lowest cost provider Appraisers. In a market where the HVCC is supposed to reduce the chance of coercion, I’m commonly asked by appraisers who are not from the local area what good comps are for their target homes. They don’t know or understand the market, and subsequently come up with some of the most random valuations I’ve ever seen. Apparently, being a local appraiser doesn’t count for anything anymore. It’s pretty hilarious, and a glaring flaw in the theory versus reality. I’m confident it will change over time, as a lot of the appraisers from out of the area have determined that the travel time is too great, and have given up.

And finally, check out the FB page for Copperwest. There are three good topics on there, including the morality of walking away, a recent report indicating that housing sizes are shrinking, but that the kitchen is still king, and…..the 2009 Home remodelers report, which tells you what you can expect to get out or any remodel by type and region, great stuff at Copperwest.com, and It’s going to be even Bettter Next Month!

Sales took a total nosedive in the second half of November around here, seems like there was a “cooling off” period around the uncertainty of the home buyer tax credit expiration. Now that it has been re-instated, it seems like business has picked up again, though it is just so tough to get through underwriting! My advice? Manage your life to your credit score for the next couple of years, and learn how to assemble a running financial statement (which is actually kind of fun, and certainly helpful) and try to automate and simplify your purchasing. (read: ONE CREDIT CARD) It certainly helps when it comes time to present a picture of your financial situation to someone else………..
Last week I got a look at the “T2” option arm reset chart, which was sent to me by about four people, but surprisingly, no Canadians (Rick, are you on vacation?) While looking eerily similar to the Alt-A reset chart, I also noticed that the scale was smaller. I’d bet that if you put the sub-prime, alt-A and option arm charts on the same graph, the Option arm resets would be dwarfed by sub-prime, and similar to alt –A. Just guessing…..(OK I looked… The Peak is higher on Option Arms, but the volume is less……)

I think these are going to be dealt with by recasting, or placing them somewhere else on the balance sheet (That is not distressed) so they can let them through at a trickle, and try to limit the damage…..I cant tell you how many people are technically in default on loans around here and their bank is doing basically nothing. If you are in financial trouble in this market, I’d bet you could effectively “homebrew” your own restructuring yourself, before the banks even get around to processing your foreclosure.

This month also marks the annual remodeler’s report . I used to follow this report (but stopped for a number of years, while “remodeling” was passe), which is used to help people decide how much money a remodel will add to their properties value. Since the Last time I looked at it, it’s gone quite high tech! The Link to it is located at Copperwest.com here. It breaks stuff out by City, region and project, including trend indicators….total timesink, be careful!

2010 is looking to be a recovery year. Still brutal, I’m sure, but hopefully we’ll get better as the year continues on, and actually be posting news about decent markets and volumes……That would be a long time coming!

Happy New Year!

First, we have a nice Facebook page now, find us on the web, or visit Copperwest.com and the feed from FB on the Front page. We like Facebook because we can quickly post new listings, and comments on the web, and it gets broadcast easily. It also pushes to twitter, where you can follow us at copperwestHR.

Things are quieting down; the last of the fall push is getting through. There are still buyers in the marketplace, buy they seem to be doing reconnaissance for early January. Lenders continue to be harsh, and I’m starting to determine that there is some sort of secondary market negotiation going on. It appears that one day a lender will let something through without a comment, and on another, they will call it out. I can tell the items that are getting called out are not related to any sort of government guaranteed program, so I’m left thinking that it’s some sort of other underwriting standard, especially with the appearance of randomness. Take away? MAKE SURE you have a strong lending package before you start looking for a home, and MAKE SURE you are looking at homes that you and your broker feel is a quality home, within the zoning of the area, and that it has at least a reasonable valid reason for being there (often called “properly entitled”)

The tax credit extension was a welcome sight, but it does appear that most of the people who could have taken advantage of the program, actually did. The new program (for current homeowners) that allows up to $6,500 in tax credit for a qualifying transaction will hopefully drive some spring sales…..

Everyone is looking to the Holidays, and getting ready for 2010, however, listing volume jumped a bit as new properties refilled the inventories. Pricing, however, remains soft.

One interesting development I read about this week is the I-banks out of New York have been buying portfolios of loans, and then segmenting them into risk groupings, and selling them off. Sounds a bit like the mortgage pools that caused the problem in the first place, but this seems to be moving the inventory out of the marketplace, which ultimately, is a good thing…..

For this month, I think we’ll take our outlook out of “prices are firming, but not rising” back down a small notch to “prices are slightly declining” although it’s a close call. Mostly seasonal…………

See you next month!

Thanks for Reading! If you like this post, please feel free to digg, tweet or otherwise! I appreciate it! Watch the video too!

Overall, Hood River Real Estate has been pretty good this month. Lots of deal action, but loooower prices.

Last year, in the fall, Sellers attempted to hold onto their prices, and managed to do a pretty good job of it. This year? Different story. Sellers have capitulated, and are selling at some steep discounts. That makes it tough for those left in the market trying to sell, but it makes the Buyers very happy.

Of course, that hangover will be lasting for a long, long time, as appraisals will become tougher with this seasonal dip. I’m certain appraisers can factor in distress sales, but a number of these sales are not distress sales, they are open, free market sales, and that’s going to hurt…..

HERA and HVCC continue to be slightly problematic, but more problematic are the new bankers dealing with mortgage. Now we are returning to the old “bankers” model; you have to prove you don’t need a loan to get a loan…….

Investments are pricing at cashflow again, I’m guessing closer to 8-12%. Thankfully. Lending, however, is all but impossible. These days, its all about owner financing.

Still with all of this, it’s been a good month, and October looks strong and so does November. That leaves only one month after that to get past 2009……….

Long term forecast for the Hood River market will be flat, at best, with pockets of calamity, and a few wipeouts. Mostly, though, people seem to be keeping it together, and most of all, working together to figure things out…..All in all, survivable.

Thanks for reading! see you next month!

Welcome to the View From Here! This is a text version of the video. Visit the View from here on You Tube or click below.
Overall this month has seen a good uptick in volume, but a decrease in prices. How’s that you say?

Cash. Cash cash cash……I’ve never seen so many all cash buyers in this market. Cash being King however, means something else…….discounts. And how.

Lots of discounted offers, and lots of deal making and negotiating. How these impact comparable sales can be devastating. Look for troubling signs out in Fox Hollow, and Country club, as appraisers attempt to swallow recent sales that are 20, and 30% below the asking prices. Other markets are marking to more traditional prices as sellers finally come back to earth in Hood River.

As prices grind lower, however, more and more buyers are showing up. The first wave and,  (in my opinion) the best deals have come and gone. If this does prove to be a bottom, July and August will be the floor. Remember about a year ago when I was talking about toxic events? I think I can say that barring another toxic event, the structural instability in residential is all priced in at this point. It’s only the bleeding that’s caused by long term unemployment that’s left, and that tends to come out slowly, and over time.

I hear in Florida, Nevada and California, there’s booming business in “foreclosure tours” but not here. Here, each deal is a one off, each motivation, unique. Neighbor to neighbor, house to house, block by block and marriage by marriage, it’s all playing out on a very small, and very personal scale. This is the downside of hyper-local.

As for mortgages…….Not too many troubles on the HERA adjustments, but I’m certain we’ll see some stuff here soon. Key factor to avoiding those issues, is don’t renegotiate the contract after appraisal has been ordered, make sure you intend on closing the deal with the mortgage broker you start the process with, and allow about 4-5 days ahead of closing to begin escrow……….

September is loading up, Hoping October will be strong as well. It’s been a long spring and Summer in Hood River Real Estate, see you out here soon!