Outlook: Overheated
Yikes-
The Market here continues to impress. My personal fears of the market being inflated have not proven out, and we are faced with advising that if people would like to be here in the near term, they must push on and get into the fray. Homes continue to sell in less than a day, which to me means excess Buyer inventory more than anything else. Hood River’s economy continues to move along, boosted mostly by home building, and other emerging economic elements. The Farming community had a good year last year, easing the pain up in the valley somewhat.
As things mature, we are still seeing “Security Buyers” or “Down Shifters” people who are later in their business careers looking to step off the gas pedal and coast…….
They are showing up laden with equity and this is causing an unnatural spike in prices. Logically, however, this trend should continue assuming things got worse in other markets (i.e. markets soften, and more people head for the door, thus, more show up in HR)
I’m not sure I can reconcile my continuing strong outlook with a softening market elsewhere, (That sounds like new economy babble to me) But this might just happen here.
I was having breakfast with an old friend this morning, a real pro at investing. He’s hit Aspen, Jackson, Telluride and Park City. Made a ton of money. Here’s what he had to say.
“….I just keep moving around to try and get away from these people. There are about 100 of these types of towns, and about 95 of them have been found. When I came here twenty years ago I thought no one was going to find this place and I’d be here forever. Now I’m trying to move away from the very same people that chased me out of Aspen and Telluride….”
Sobering, yes.
