August numbers are in (Copperwest.com, reader’s bottom left hand of the page) and, as expected, we are gaining ground on 2010. (Not that THAT was hard to do, really) As Bill Irving puts it, “timing shift” which is probably accurate. I get so focused on months that I don’t think about quarters.

Inventory months continues its march downward (which as I mentioned last month, is a good thing, but it largely depends on what we end up with in January) and it’s at 13.8 months for August. I’m still betting it goes into the single digits in September or October. When you consider that in August of 2009 it was 17 months of inventory, and in 2010 it was….20………well, that’s a good sign, but not a definitive one. (Healthy market is 7-9, and I remember when we used to lament how “depressed” a 9 month inventory level was….I WISH we could get to a number like that again!)

The late season price pickers came through the market with a vengeance, and, barring a few war stories, pretty much had their way. There are a couple of neighborhood resets, and the distressed inventory seems to be high, but not destructively so. A couple of Realtors have moved into the Foreclosure market, and seem to be moving a decent amount of property. We aren’t cleaning up the place, but I think our foreclosure overhang isn’t as bad as many other places, ultimately, and the rental market is so strong that any workable property can find a buyer. We did seem to experience it in one intense burst (thanks to that banks, who held them all back for one reason or another, then released them, pretty much all at once) If you want to see a good list of what’s what, use the filters at the Copperwest.com search engine, and you can see all the properties that are listed as short sales or bank owned. Cool feature, that one.

September’s early reports are good. Decent number of sales, INSANE interest rates, which is finally, pulling people off the fence. (I never thought I’d see someone shrug off a 4.25% rate, until I realized, a few months later, they were right, as the interest rates dipped below 4.00% last week.) But what is really interesting is how many deals have fallen apart in the last few weeks…..

It’s like that uncertainty thing is creeping back in the market again. We are fighting it back (and 4% is an effective bludgeon) but you can see it return. People say that the threat of a second recession is very real, and I’ve somewhat ignored those comments until I saw it on some people’s faces.

It’s a lot more real to me now, that’s for sure.

Ok, on that cheery note, that’s it for this month! Remember, EVERYONE feels sad about the waning of summer, but once we get through the mud season, it’s Snow time! See you next month.