Hood River Real Estate and Columbia Gorge Real Estate

Good Riddance 2008!

The market’s have really seized up in the last 60 days, as everyone is gripped with uncertainty and angst. So much so, there’s not much to write. Some deals are closing, they tend to be of lower price points, that’s dragging on the values of the next bracket of prices up ($350 and up to about $500 are experiencing some downward pressure due to low Buyer traffic.) Buyers continue to be offended that they can’t “steal” a property, Sellers, by and large, can hold on to their prices (see “underwater Lock Down”) and slowly, inventory is starting to scratch the bottom.

So….It’s a bit of a stalemate. If it weren’t for the amazing interest rates, we’ll we’d be in a right fine mess.

So here’s to 2009. Remember that comment about making sure your credit score was solid? Remember the comments about the weird underwriting standards?

2009 has that and so, so much more in store. It’s going to be a challenging year, but the doomsday scenario is totally oversold, so I expect some firming up after while, perhaps June, with the usual caveats.

The Buyers keep coming, and there’s a full raft of them around these days…..the trick is getting them off the sidelines…….If 4.8% won’t do it, well, I’m afraid nothing will.

Maybe the warm weather will help. I’ll still be here, so don’t forget about us!

Happy New Year!

Making sense of this market sure isn’t easy in Hood River Real Estate.

There. Now that we have that out of the way, here’s what’s been going on.

Basically, everything is frozen while everyone waits for a signal, ANY signal, that its safe to go out and buy something. There’s still a bit of a Buyer’s “hype-gap” (where the buyer’s show up and expect the entire market to have cratered, and is bummed when they find out that they can’t offer 40% off ask) but there are signs of increasing stress on the sellers, although once the properties dip in price, there seem to be buyers out there willing to respond.

The market is also continuing to thin out. Next spring in Hood River continues to be worrisome due to lack of inventory. At worst, it’s a market stabilizer.

More people want to move to Hood River by the day. A lot of them are still stuck in other transactions, and so here we are, holding, holding, holding…..

As far as Realtor confidence, things remain tenuous. It seems a bit like the offices are stuck in limbo, with no direction, a bit adrift. I refer to it as “gravity-less” where we are all not able to get a bearing on anything but each other. That creates an interesting dynamic, one that will catalyze, probably in the New Year, as Hood River Real Estate Brokers decide whether to stay, or to pack it in for greener pastures.

In 60 days, my guess is there will be about 20% attrition (that’s the PMAR estimate too, by the way) I think this area has over 200 agents…….so 40 agents. Wow.

Interest rates continue to be tough, but will relax here in a bit, I continue to say…”If you like it, buy it” because of my decreasing confidence in any replenishing inventory……….

That’s it for this month. Happy Holidays! My cards go out next Friday……….Don’t you just wish you were getting a pithy card from me…… Wait a minute, many of you are…..

Rural Shock, Jumbo Caps and the three words you want to hear………

Yes, things are very fluid at the end of October, 2008. Some would say historic.

While the internet allows us a front row seat to the carnage, there is a pretty sever disconnect down on the street level. Even among the “injured” class, people just see a weekend visit to Rural Oregon as a nice treat.

Traffic, at least, has been strong in Hood River Real Estate, and the weather has been a dream. People are shocked when they come into the office to look at prices, shocked they are holding up so well.

….Which isn’t to say that they are, entirely. There has been a pretty orderly mark-down of properties in the last 45 days, and I expect there will be downside pressure into the Spring. The question is who can hold out that long.

Inventory keeps dropping, and that’s a worrisome sign for me…..mostly it portends a tough, thin market in the spring. I’m still saying to my clients…”If you like it buy it!” but at 6.5%, well, that’s a tough rate to swallow…………

On top of that, the Jumbo Cap is only $417,000 right now. Anything over that, and the cost of your loan skyrockets (think 7%), assuming you could even get it. That will put a damper on properties in the “aspirational affluent” category…….over $750,000.

That makes the following three words music to a transaction………….

Owner. Will. Carry

See you next month. Next up, Credit Cards!