View From here, April 2012
It’s a late night. I’ve got Johnny Cash spinning, and I’ve been having the best time on Pinterest! (Black hole of non-productiveness!) Ok, back to work……
Another decent 30 days. Lots of buyers in the low $250,000 range, and lots of USDA deals. Pretty much as fast as they can build them, they sell. I’ve used the Keynes “Animal Spirits” phrase a couple of times this week, if that’s any indication. If you have a house in the sub $300 range, please do give us a call! I can sell it.
Up over $300,000 it’s a different story. There’s really great value still up there, and if you can find a dual living situation (Like an ADU, for example) there’s some pretty compelling valuations.
We are starting to see the spring inventory come back out, but unfortunately, there’s a lot of retreads so far. Stuff that was overpriced, and is still over priced…..Oh well, more perma-inventory.
I’ve yet to see the inventory months come down, and I’m thinking that there is still some serious inventory overhang (just not sellable inventory) so that’s clogging up the works at the moment. It will clear up one of these days. Still a pending issue though.
This month, too, I got a flash of the future while I was out on the West-side. Standing there with some clients, I suddenly got the feeling that we actually might be at an inflection point on the land inventory. The clients were “typical” as in, I think I’ve got a growing rolodex of clients like these, and the pieces were coming together in such a compelling manner, I could actually see this deal happening over and over, and…..well you get the idea. I’m beginning to feel that the next “big” thing is land and lots.
Yes, I know. Crazy talk.
…And finally, on the commercial side (This is for you Shawn!) It has been so, so, so difficult to get deals done, that I’ve had a couple multi-year deals in the pipe, and finally. FINALLY they will close this month. That’s big news for my clients, and their customers.
2 Comments
I’d be interested in what you think of this analysis and how it applies to Hood River Valley real estate http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/04/debunking-the-housing-recovery-story-part-1-of-5/
Hey Joel-
It’s certainly possible for both of us to be correct. On a large (Like Case-Schiller sample size) scale, certainly Ritholz is correct. There IS a HUGE amount of overhang (and BTW can you post a link for the remaining 4 points as they come up? I can address them as they are posted.) but those numbers dont give us any indication of WHERE those units are (for example, a large percentage of the national overhang in inventory exists in only 5 states, Florida, California, Utah, Nevada and Arizona)
The issue as it Relates to Hood River Real Estate is that our total number of units is somewhat small, and our inventory overhang (at this pricing level) is effectively gone. As prices stiffen (not happening yet) and begin to rise, we will, slowly, uncover other pockets of inventory. The longer this drags out though, the more “underwater” properties slowly drop into the distressed range, and become part of “overhang.”