Welcome to January, where the snow falls, and……well wait a minute, I don’t think we’ve had much snow this year, and I’m noticing the buds forming……looks like an early spring. (Just jinxed it)

Our lovely Real Estate market is in interesting shape. It’s struggling along, and inventory seems to be dropping…..prices dipped there for the last few months, and there was a considerable amount of restructuring on some properties, and viola! New pricing, and forward progress. Only thing is, there’s nothing behind that, except a raft of homeowners who are not interested in selling their homes….thus….Floor.

…Or at least I think so. The phones been ringing with Sellers, but it’s lighter than last year, to be sure. I was pondering the overall market for the coming year, and I actually think we will have a slightly WORSE year in terms of total dollar amount. My best guess is pricing will firm, but volume will drop. I’m guessing that this year will be 3-5% lower in terms of dollar volume, with reasonable signs of recovery late in the year….

It’s still a good time to get after some property, Rental rates are….well they are insane. I’ve heard people quote, with a straight face, $1,900 a month for a place downtown. It just rented. For a year.

Now, that might not sound like a lot to many of our readers, but in Hood River, that’s creating some pain, because of the makeup of our workforce. There’s a critical need to keep our workforce in place here, (because of the commuting distance and costs) but many workers are being driven out due to the cost of housing. It’s a constant problem in this community, and this year, especially for the summer crew, it will be acute.

Take a look at the video this month, for a few more observations. Spring is in its earliest phases, and it couldn’t come soon enough! See you next month!

Sorry to have been out of touch. End of year craziness, and the market is slow….. November Market Action is out, and it paints a somewhat bleak story. The First part of my thesis about our market has scored about a “C” which was, that we were at the bottom of the trough….November’s numbers are a touch harsher than my version of the future, and the other side of the “bathtub” seems a touch father away, especially with rates creeping. This isn’t the permanent creeping I think may return at some point, I think this is artificial. Either way, the impact is chilling.

I’m still hoping for the extra credit question to save me on the first part, which proves that I may not be exactly accurate, but I’m not entirely wrong…. but only spring will show us that. Inventory has swollen, and the buyers are still waiting for the other shoe to drop….I will say, however, that some areas are pulling great comparable sales….over $700,000 is one of those ranges….But I digress.

The last few weeks of the year are spent making sure the New Year is a success. We at CopperWest have had a very good year. Still tough, to be sure, but compared to last year, pretty good. We are very gratefull for all your support, and comments through the year, and we look forward to 2011 as being a year of recovery, such as it were.

And now, for something fun. Enjoy!

September Market Action is out…… It’s on the front page of www.copperwest.com or click here.

It’s been a mixed month for us, but some big properties have suddenly moved. All out of town too. Lots of things that went pending in the Summer are scheduled to close, and I’ve noticed a few of them have come back on the market after a sale fail. Not many, but certainly a few. Higher than average, but not enough to be a trend.

Other properties are closing at pretty intense discounts……A recent highline property sold for $408,000 is very low, (Last list was in the $510,000 range) but some land off of dry creek in Mosier, posted a really good price. There are definitely a lot of sales specific to the Owner’s financial conditions, not the inherent value of the property…..

Even with that, It does feel like things are firming up under the market. Of course, as soon as I say that, the foreclosure mess comes to a head, and things get thrown into doubt….
….and a few words about that issue…. While everyone seems to be looking at the process, which the banks rightfully are dismissing as “technical errors” what was being missed in the whole discussion (though not anymore) is this:

Once you have cast doubt on a part of the process chain, (in this case, the far end of the process, the foreclosure process) it opens up a line of inquiry into the entire process. Once you start looking a little closer, you start to see that in fact, there were similar errors, and systemic ones at that, that occurred at the near end of the process, when the loans were originated, and then again when they were syndicated and securitized.

Now, as an investor, looking at large losses, wouldn’t you want the person who sold you that large loss to take it back? Yep, I bet you would. But you can’t, unless you prove that the process that brought the loan to you in the first place was flawed, or worse, fraudulent.

But you couldn’t do that, because no one was listening, until last week.

Now, you, and 50 state Attorney Generals are going to look a lot closer at the process, and soon, some of those banks are going to be taking bad loans back onto their balance sheets. Very soon. Any they aren’t the “extend and pretend” type loans either, they are fully ripe, “can’t-ignore-it-the-auction-has-been-scheduled,” type loans.

WHAT pray tell, does that mean to Hood River Real Estate? Incredibly, probably not much, except it will continue the uncertainty and fear that has been pervasive in this market. That keeps people on the fence, and if you are on the fence, you are not buying a house. It will most certainly have a dampening effect on price increases.

(And you knew this was coming) Now, however, while prices are low, fewer people can convert out of their properties, leading too……lower inventory, and increasing demand relative to supply and……well, call me next spring and I’ll tell you how it comes out.

But seriously, inventory is dropping (partly seasonal, partly sell-through, to be honest) Our unemployment is…..wait for it…..7.9% and there are jobs on the horizon. And more than a few at that.

Contractors are busy as well. Even with all the mess and uncertainty, It is a recovery, but it sure won’t feel like one….. And I don’t know how good you can feel while things are getting better, but you are still stuck in the middle of a minefield.

I do have to say, however, I’d rather be here than any place else in the US right now. It’s stable, its safe. Things are tough, but it doesn’t take much looking around to realize that the Northwest may not post the best numbers according to nationwide stats, but it is, on the whole, a load better off than other places. (for those of you who insist I name another region, I’ll say “Great Lakes” but I could just as easily say, Arizona, Nevada, California Inland Empire or Florida….)

Do I type that every month? Or is it only once every couple of months?

That’s it for now. Keep it together everyone. Thanks for reading and we’ll see you next month!

Thankfully, I’m not late to post this month………..Things have certainly been slower, so I’ve got time to catch up, that’s for sure. Weather has been amazing as well……and that’s why September is the best month of the year in Hood River!

All brokers are working this month and the buyer’s activity has been high. Year to date numbers show us selling the same units as some of our competitors, quite an accomplishment when you consider we are less than one quarter their size. Thank goodness for process.

Prices are stable to weak, with closings that occasionally firm up a price range, and others, that are destroying price ranges. Houses in the 500+ range are shrinking quickly, and we are now seeing multiple markdowns of properties that opened into the “dead zone” of 600+…..Inventory months will be dropping in the next few months, which is a traditional fall trend, but expect it to be a bit more pronounced this year.

Closings from Augusts rush are coming in, and if you are planning on doing something in Real Estate, especially refinance, PLEASE do yourself a favor and call us first, so you don’t spend $500.00 to find out your market got reset last week……I can’t tell you how often this is happening.

The constant drumbeat of price reduction has faded slightly, and in the last few weeks, the buyer’s have been overplaying their hands, much to their chagrin. Sellers are simply balking at another 15% off their already 25% marked down home, and where they don’t have to sell, they wont. Unfortunately, if they DO have to sell, it’s becoming a rare property that can get down into the correct range without going equity negative. Generally, you can look at a purchase date and get an idea. If you bought in 2005 more or less, you are a more likely candidate of getting through. 06-09 is tough, unless you came in equity heavy.

So now, the focus is on those few remaining properties that are equity heavy, but willing to deal……now, they do, however often come with those “quality defects” I’ve so often mentioned….but hey, at least there are buyers. I’d even hazard that the “confidence gap” has narrowed recently….

Foreclosure notices are now taking up a full two pages in the weekly Hood River News. Sobering. I remember when that was last the case, and it was all the way back in 1992….

I see some bright spots (like us being up 100% for the year) but it isn’t without its bare knuckle work. 4.375% 30 year fixed is the going rate, and that will certainly get someone interested, but with negotiation, appraisal, Automated Market Valuations, desk reviews, and jittery sellers, who are negotiating while they are coming to grips with “is that all I can get?” well…..

It is no country for old men, to use a movie title….. (Which was a terribly depressing movie…but very good. Who thinks of that stuff?)

October is looking weak, but traditionally we save it in the last selling week. (Which is last calendar week of September) The big test is November. We already have December in the books, so it’s a 60 day game, clock is ticking, and we are slightly behind…..

So, got to run, see you next month, Thanks for reading!