When I was in college, just before we graduated (now a young adult ago) I read an article about this new thing that the airlines were doing. “yield management.”

Someone somewhere in the reservation system figured out that depending on the time before the flight, the route, and the time of year, peoples “elasticity of demand” curve changed. Meaning, they’d pay more depending on when they called.

I immediately thought “wow, how insidious that is….”

What a naive comment. It’s gone from an interesting software algorithm to an industry so scary, it threatens to parse us down into boxes, literally anticipating our next move, and a profitable one at that…

And I’m not even talking about those stupid ads that follow you around on the web……

Credit quotes are starting to do that. Simplistically, it’s about a better rate for a higher FICO, but, actually, it’s about yield management. How much you’ll pay, given a certain set of data known about you.

Now, a banker will tell you it’s about risk mitigation, but it’s not. It’s about profit maximization. Get ready, because your credit score is going to start ruling you. The potential for national default (at this posting) will ultimately be seen as a pretense.

And that was my rant for this month……OK back to Hood River Real Estate. Still going, choppy, messy, really bad time with appraisers, but that’s nothing new at the moment. Surprising amount of business, actually. I can honestly say it’s been a good July, which usually isn’t something I would have normally said. The quality of our inventory is pretty good right now, but some nice homes, homes that should be selling, are getting pulled off the market to go into rentals, because buyers, in some instances, are overplaying their hands, and Sellers, quite frankly, can rent for more.

August is looking reasonable too, assuming things don’t get dicey with the markets. Interestingly, I bet if things get dicey, there could be a flood of money headed our way. Or not, depending on people’s confidence in America.

Some friends and I were sitting around having a beer recently, and the topic of the Hood River bubble came up. Bubble is such a bad word, that we finally settled on “distortion field” The idea that we seem to have this happy distortion field around us. “We think Hood River is doing so well relative to the rest of the country,” “Our unemployment rate is so low,” “isn’t that a cool thing for a rural community?” kind of thing.

People keep reminding me that Hood River is often the last to go in, and the last to come out, but I feel like we just DID go in, but this time we came out quicker than most. Am I crazy? Or am I just throwing off a distortion field?

Discuss! See you next month. More of the same……or cryptic, post financial apocalypse messaging…..50/50 chance…. 

Well, what can we say about this last month? After all is said and done, we are busy, and things seem to be moving again. I’m really grateful for that. The economy is still in strain, but last year it was so focused on the post first timer credit, that, well, we all just basically melted. Everyone was concentrating on how BAD Real Estate was, that we just had a season of being the poster children of “lame jobs for the new century” Thank goodness that’s past.

This year, the action is all overseas with the potential for Greek default. In our little bubble, what we are seeing is a fair number of buyers out in the marketplace, but a very difficult time obtaining financing because of low appraisals, primarily due to Sellers, in some instances, running towards the buyers. This has, unfortunately, caused this sort of negative feedback loop. Strict underwriting has caused sale prices to be lower, has cause more appraisals to come in low, has, caused……well, you get the picture.

Further complicating the picture is the potential fallout of an event like Greece’s default. To me, that means tougher credit, but to some, that means a flight to the safety of the US dollar…..Love that one. Money pouring in, Banks still too scared to lend. I bet there will be a bifurcation of that credit access too. If you have GREAT scores, you’ll get faster, easier underwriting and a better rate. If not, you’ll get….nothing. I hate to say something as simplistic as the rich get richer, but It’s there, it real, and it’s happening right now.

In a bright spot amidst the carnage, one of our group projects that we help out on, managed to get past a huge milestone. I can see a double digit number of jobs moving to Hood River from that project alone.

I bet there’s going to be some firming driven by demand by new arrivals to Hood River in the future because of the surprising well of entrepreneurialism around here….. (AND, you can already buy cash-flowing rentals in Hood River as well, so there’s that, too)

On the retail front, we have all had a steady, not stellar, first half. Costs are high, but people are coping. We are also having a tough time finding good talent. Imagine that. All this woe in the national unemployment scene, Hood River, with an 8% unemployment rate, and we can’t find a good line cook.

It all leaves my head spinning, really. I’ve got some big, big worries about larger economic issues, but right now, in Hood River, in our areas….I’ve got to say, it’s a pretty decent time to be in the market. That could change tomorrow, mind you, but I have to say (With a wry smile) that its ok to jump in the pool…

Armageddon or salvation seems to always be just past our 30 day window. An answer that “auto magically” (my new favorite word) seems to adjust, and always be out of reach. Like the carrot dangling on the end of a stick, we’ll put on foot in front of another until we get there, eh?

See you all next month.

….Lots of new listings. Some really nice properties for Copperwest this last month. (14th Street, 215 E 3rd street 102 Pine in White Salmon)I’m really happy with the traction of my office, though the business seems to have broken away from me, and towards my crew (sniff) I couldn’t be happier.

It seems the sweet spot right now is under $300, and down to the low $200 range. There are some really comfortable homes in that range, and when you are looking to simplify, well…..that price range looks really great.

The number one issue from a home features standpoint this month was a garage. It’s no longer for the toys, however. It’s for the downsizing. I’ve seen fewer, and fewer garages with motorcycles and jetskis, and more and more with furniture from a previous home.

….And that is what it is. Even with that, peoples moods are leavening, even as they are simplifying everything. I have to say, this last few weeks have been refreshing, working with clients, who may have had a set back or two, but are getting organized and simplified, and actually, have a great plan moving forward….. Inspirational, really.

…If only the appraisers were so kind. I’m uncertain how we could enact so much reform in the mortgage market, and now end up with worse appraisers than before. We have had an absolutely impossible time these last months with appraisers, and it’s getting worse, not better. Appraisers complaining that they didn’t want to actually “drive out and physically inspect” the property because it was too far from their home. True story. Isn’t that what an appraiser is supposed to do?!

There’s been some great articles recently on the mortgage crisis, the evolving CW of listing and selling property, as well as a couple of just flat out barn burners about the craziness of the NINJA Loan folks who, thank goodness are mostly all gone, but unfortunately, have left quite a mess behind….Alot of those links are on Copperwest’s FB page. There’s a bunch of great reads. Go check it out.

Our foreclosure market has seemed to have calmed down a touch too….or perhaps I’m too busy to track it anymore. Showings are up (Though across a very narrow group of Realtors BTW) Sales are not, but the Buyer’s are stacking up and just this week, properties have disappeared, prompting more than one angry phone call, and the thought was had, though not uttered, about snoozing and losing…..

But it’s still not a recovery.

I’m editing and showing property a lot more off my iPad, and it’s much much more than at toy. I’m editing this in pages from a moving automobile, and before I get home, I’ll have it posted to the web.
I’m not sure I can unplug anymore, given that tight response times and insane amounts of realtime posting and data retrieval are now a hallmark of an attentive broker. When it gets this easy and seamless (check out iDisk on the apple platform….whoa) it’s really tempting to never unplug… Now if only that speed will result in some slack line…..oh well.