…..We’ve finally been seeing a fair number of foreclosure units hit the market, and there’s been some real velocity around REO’s this last month. (In the Hood River market) I’d have to say…..I’m feeling pretty positive. The activity has waned, but the Buyer’s lists are pretty full across all our brokers, and everyone is moving about, that’s for sure…..

It’s not like it’s a recovery, but after last years dismal numbers, (in terms of units closed) how could we NOT see something of a volume bounce? We are off to a good start in that direction, however.

Let’s see, interesting things from Hood River this month…..Well, we’ve had one heck of a storm this month, and it pretty much drove all business to a standstill for a week. We are just now uncovering, but there was a substantial amount of damage to trees around town….
The rental market remains tight, and it appears that Insitu is hiring again, because we’ve had a bunch of people call looking for rentals this last few weeks.

Late last month, they announced that they would be staying in the area, and specifically, remaining in Bingen. Great news really, as they have been a strong employer for this region during tough times.

We launched a new website this last week as well. Updated, and using some really cool features, including Chat functionality, and a great set of preset searches that leverage a couple of items from the IDX database, like the ability to see the most recent price reductions by area, and newest properties, by area….It’s a great way to keep casual tabs on the marketplace!

And finally, and I’m now begging you…. go to our Facebook site and like our page! I’ve been posting more and more to that than anyplace else….it’s like having your own personal Real Estate clipper.

Prices seem stable, to slightly upward, same with volume and the Sellers have recovered quickly, hoping to hold out for better dollars closer to summer…

Listings are starting up again, the weather, while terrible, seems to be lightening up, and the days are getting longer…..time to get into spring cleaning mode!

Ok, it isn’t that dramatic…..For awhile now, I’ve been tracking the value of Hood River County against the rest of the market. As a gauge of our county’s pull, and the relative popularity of the “Country Country” vs the “City Country.”

It’s not in any way scientific, just a hash mark in the years numbers. For awhile there was going to be some parity, where Hood River County in total was the same value as the other three counties combined.….

But alas, a good showing by Wasco in 2011, and a resurgent interest in larger pieces of non-urban land have lead to a reversal of that trend this year.

Now, you could tie yourself up in pretzels trying to determine some drivers….shakier economics leads to more rural transactions because of foreclosures? Maybe. Prior buyers in the HR market were actually speculative and have been forced into a hiatus? Prooobably…….

The longer term trend, though, is that Hood River County (HRC) versus the rest of the market (ROTM) has been narrowing. It almost merged last year, then HRC’s volume and sides closed deflected (more about that later) downward, with a truly, truly sizable drop in number of units closed this year. I actually do think that sets us up for a bump in volume if we are to return to the historical trend….

Or not, in which case the new reality in Hood River could be a lean one….but there are just too many indicators that say otherwise…….

Worth noting is the annual number of units closed in this market (Hood River County, vs. Wasco Klickitat and Skamania) take a look.

The Market looks in 2011 to be the same as 2009 in total numbers, but there a shift to the ROTM in 2011, and pretty much the entire drop was in the HR county market. Ouch. I could further parse it by our market areas, but I’m guessing it would show the Westside dropping off a cliff in terms of volume. Maybe I’ll do that next month.

What’s probably most sobering is that 55+ deals went away in 2010 vs. 2011. There’s a bunch of stuff in the pipe, BTW and traditionally there is a push at the very end of the year, but by and large…..well, it was a down year in terms of transactions, period.

So, what’s ahead? I expect a volume rebound in HR in 2012, which in turn will stabilize our total dollar volume, both up about 10-15%, to 2009 volumes. It could take a good decade to return to anything resembling a market volume of over 200 million, but 160-180 stabilized isn’t out of the question. The Real Estate Broker starve out continues, and technology is probably the key. The stuff happening today is incredible. If you aren’t right on the new technology, it seems to just blow past you, leaving you at a real disadvantage. Get ready, the whole model is about to change…..again!

See you next month.  Check out our new website, launching in early 2011. Thank you for your readership, and your patronage this year. We look forward to being of service to you in 2012!

I continue to be surprised at the high variability in appraisals. Distance to comparable, age of comparable and our market size make things pretty challenging. Mind you, I can appreciate the variability of any pricing model (which is why they call it negotiation, buddy…….) but the qualification margins are so razor thin these days (partly because of our ability to stretch as far as humanly possible, and the ability for the pricing of a home to pace it) that often a slight difference in opinion of value on the appraisal becomes the last straw that unravels a deal.

This last month, besides all the sub-$250,000 properties being sold (most of them, anyway) there were a couple of the last of the downtown properties that moved through, further lowering our inventory in the downtown core. I’m still looking for overall inventory months to get to 10…..mostly as a matter of professional pride, mind you, but I bet that in some areas (362, which is downtown) that number is already below 10 months of inventory…….

In other news, we are seeing more and more offerings with owner financing, which is nice, but continue to have large negotiating gaps, which means a fair bit of wasted paper. Some Sellers wont (or cant) go below a certain range, and some of those “perma-listings” will be with us for a long, long time.

Outlook for 2012? Choppy, uncertain, but the bias is positive. I really think that we can live in this band of volume and deal complexity for a fairly long while, as long as there is the promise of better days ahead….For this month, December, we can certainly live with where we are at, which makes us happy! Next year, 2012, there will most likely be another Realtor contraction, which helps keep those of us who are alive….well, alive.

See you next month! THANK YOU to all of you who have been reading this year, Thank you for using the site, thank you for liking us on FB, and following us on twitter. I’m very grateful to have a few moment of your month to share our story. You’ll really love what we have in store for you next year, as we grow!