Total inventory is slightly lower ytd than last year, given the quality of the inventory, (pretty good) I can guess at a couple of things. We might have chewed though the “easy foreclosure” properties and be delving into the “hanging on for dear life” inventory……I’ve also noticed the average ask for the most recent new listings have been over $500,000…..also, potentially indicative of something more sinister.

Good news this month comes from others, smarter than I looking deeper into the SD issue. It turns out, with limited early data arriving, that the average home value drop would have to be off 62% or more, before home owners decide that an SD is the way to go…..That’s a long, long way…..especially around here.  Score one for moral fortitude.

Interestingly, when you calculate the total home value in the US against the total mortgage debt outstanding, (and this calculation has been done by a couple of sources, so I’m mostly reposting) what apparently shows up is this tidbit….that given the value of the housing inventory in the United States, the indebtedness is too high, indicating an erosion of equity, which is an indicator of increasing foreclosure pressure. (We didn’t need a macro-economics calculation of tell us that, but anyway……)

That’s certainly a big picture view, to be sure, and includes the traditional wipeout zones,(CA, AZ, NEV and FLA.)  We are not one of those areas, but comes troubling data from a couple of blog sources that Oregon is the #3 foreclosure state in the country…..I’m not sure of #3 of what (per capita? Rate per 100?) I went and looked at Realty Trac’s heat maps for Oregon, and we show 10 foreclosures for June, (1 in every 891 units, which is a screwy calc, for a whole number of reasons…)……So, moderate. Not sure where this is coming from but……….Oh wait, I figured it out…. It’s from This Article…

Ok, now that I’ve read it….it’s #3 in the rate of filing….ummm..nevermind. That was totally overhyped. Late to the party, still on the steep part of the curve…..

Which brings me to my next point. The media, blogosphere and others are tweaking the scare-o-meter too much. Don’t get me wrong, It’s bad, it’s tough, and it’s going to be a tough and long, and hard road, but claiming we are #3 in the nation for foreclosures is just patently inaccurate, and it’s meant to scare people. Unfortunately, it’s working. (see: “birds on a wire” below)

Ok, back to Hood River.

Regardless, however, the price reductions have begun, as the sellers are seeing the Summer wane, and now pivot to a strategy for Fall. Rent or Reduce? That is the question. It’s about 50/50 now, but I know that buyers are out there, sitting, watching, and waiting.  I refer to it as a group of “birds on a wire” (Forgive me, anyone whom I’ve told this to in the last week) They will all sit there, until one of them makes a move, then they’ll all move at once…..The interesting thing is this, there are more birds than there are properties they are interested in, so when one moves, expect that all of them will move at once……just in a specific section of the market (I’m not telling what part, but you could easily intuit it.) but I can assure you they are there, and they are ready for the signal. Problem is, I’m not the guy in charge of the signal…..

So, expect soft pricing, and low rates for the rest of the Summer, with a random vaporization of a segment of the market around…..first week of august. Earlier if someone clues in and jumps on the best deal first (which happens to be one of my listings! Yipee!)

Lets all go get outside and on the water. Don’t have to worry so much out there……See you next month.

Ummm….err…I don’t know?

I’ve been chewing through scenario after scenario, and for Hood River Real Estate, it kind of boils down to this…..This is going to be a symptom of a larger issue, (like employment outlook) and as such, it will hit neighborhoods differently.

Be sure of this, however, there is no such thing as a free lunch. Walking on a house while you can still afford the payment may sound nice in the short term, but it is again, one more example of short horizon thinking, and could lead you to a long period as a renter, with poor credit, and ultimately you might STILL owe the balance of your loan…..

However, right before I sent out the newsletter last month, This popped up in the NYT.

It outlines the issue, and a couple of interesting factors I had not thought of, and one of them is this….

Not paying your mortgage helps get you back on your feet again.

Ok, I’ll buy that, but like the old story goes, “be careful what you wish for….you might get it.”

I still think there is another phase of the bank crisis in this, as it’s a fundamental shift in the way the public at large views the trust/bond with their banking institution. Once that veil is pierced….the public no longer views the bank as having any power over them, and the bank wont trust anyone….well that’s a recipe for disaster in my book.

The bank pushback to that of course is the long term damage that will do to the individual borrower. There are literally a dozen scenarios of default….deed in lieu, judicial foreclosure, non-judicial, workout, bankruptcy….each version extracts a toll on your future ability to access credit….and in many ways, access to credit determines your standard of living (not in a jet ski/ATV in the driveway kind of thing, but more in a general, need to pay the bills kind of thing)

Did You Know?
As an example of some recently discovered pieces of the puzzle, consider the following tidbits:
1. Your debt relief in the event of a short sale is taxable income.
2. In many short sales, (and I think in foreclosures too) The issue of recourse is now in play.

• It depends on the state, and your documents, but in common instances, you could give up your house to the bank they could sell it for a loss, and then come after you for the balance (they can do this in a  number of ways, too)

Crazy eh? It’s never easy, and I return to the aforementioned axiom:

“There is no.such.thing. as a free lunch.”

OK, Now to Hood River Real Estate……….
Quality is great. Nice inventory, motivated sellers, few buyers, (still pooling at $300 and lower) but the financing is working, and I’d argue even better after the great starve-off of mortgage brokers. My last couple of deals have had total pros working the files. What a joy.

I’ve noticed that there isn’t as much attrition in Real Estate Agents…….yet. I have noticed that the sales have spread out among a laaarge list of agents, many of whom I know are operating out of less than formal locations.

Robert Reich wrote an article last month about the supposed “entrepreneurial boom” that is occurring in the United States. He basically said that wasn’t so much of a boom as it was a sign of desperation, of “basically unemployed” people trying to “do something,” anything to improve their situation……

A single Broker office, that does two deals a year is an example of that. Is this market headed that direction? Probably not, but it sure isn’t headed in the direction of the national chain either. As with all things, it will be a balance……

Hope you enjoyed the posting. Get out and enjoy the sunshine! See you next month!

Interesting uncertainty has quietly crept back into the market. I’m thinking that the heated buyers market that suddenly cooled had something to do with the tax credit, and the fact that everyone is waiting to get done with school, and into the Summer. I polled my brokers, and they are still seeing buyers show up, but everyone is early in the cycle, so it looks like summer buyers to me. I’ve been distracted with County Budgets and such, I’ve not been working the market like my brokers…..Who by the way, along with me, make up three of the top ten agents in the market this year. That makes 2/3 of our Brokers in the top ten……And our market share continues to grow……I’ll take it.

Couple other things happening in the market these days, the new phenomenon of “jingle mail” now has a slightly more serious moniker, (which means its becoming more widespread, and less novel) called “Strategic Default”

Now, there’s foreclosure, and it can be caused by a lot of things, not any of them good, but here is one that really, really scares me. SD isn’t a default because of a catastrophe, it’s a default because of choice, essentially, a business decision.

Let me be critical for a moment. Strategic default is a symptom of denial. It says you care more about your standard of living than you do your neighbors, It’s like having a campfire in a national forest, in august, and then falling asleep while it’s still going. If this takes off, it could lay waste to whole neighborhoods due to markdowns, and that could take a long, long time to recover from… Have I made my point clear?

There, now that I’ve said it, let me turn the coin. Strategic default CAN be a reasonable option for people in the right situation, for the right reasons. Like I mentioned a few months back, when this first came to light, it doesn’t sound right when a person makes a decision to strategically default, but when a company does it, often times they are rewarded for making a “shrewd business decision” (I’d hate to be on the receiving end of anything being referred to as a “shrewd business decision” these days) I don’t think there’s much of a difference between the two except for perception.
What’s really unsettling here, is this. Where does this thread stop? (see Contagion, below)

And there’s more! Compliments of Realtytrac. (www.realtytrac.com) Guess where 50% of ALL FORCLOSURES IN THE US ARE? ….You have to go no lower than #5 to encompass the top 50%. Can you imagine how bad that must be? Even with decreasing numbers of foreclosures, it’s still a scary set of numbers. Imagine if the word CONTAIGION crept into the discussion. Strategic Default leads to neighborhood contagion of SDs…..

This brings a whole new light to the phrase “keeping up with the Jones’” Thank goodness I don’t live in California.

That’s it for this month, keep an eye on inflation, which, according to Paul Krugman might not be the right thing to look at. He says we could be more Japan than Greece. I think I might take that over rioting over enforced austerity measures……

This choppiness is looking all so May of 2008……….

(postscript- Volume has just shot up, way up. New listings, New buyers, most in the higher ranges……whiplash! Also, so very 2008)

Our weather here is still stuck in spring mode. I’m hoping it will get warmer soon, but who knows. My Web cam is still screwy. Time for a new computer, says my wife. A Mac!

What I do know about is how busy things have been. People are clued (or have clued, as this is the last day, wait, is that even a word?) into the tax credit, and Sellers and Buyers have sharpened their programs to get stuff moved. In fact, lots and lots of stuff has moved, though if you thought you were going to offer on a short sale and make it under the timeline, you woefully misjudged.
Last month, all eyes were on the quality of the inventory, and I have to say, there were some very, very nice properties that came (and went) to and from the market. We have written a number of deals that will qualify, and some of them have been very good bargains.

Lending and underwriting has also improved, and we are back around 30 days for a deal, perhaps a touch longer. Buyers have returned, however gingerly, to a position of “risk-taking” given they are well compensated, which is an improvement from a few months ago, where a buyer asked for such a discount as to make the purchase almost failsafe.

This STILL doesn’t mean prices are going up anytime soon. All the short sales that have gone under contract will only lead to a fresh set of underwater houses to come on the market. I suspect we’ll have a version of this for about the next year. I would have said two, but I’ve been really surprised at the speed that last batch cleared the market. They will have a dampening effect on the market however, especially in sieverkropp and the Westside addition near fox hollow.

The majority of the action is well under the $400,000 range, but some of the Summer buyers are coming up early to get a jump on things. I’ve gone from showing piles and piles of property under $300,000 to a bunch over $400,000 in just the last week. That’s a decent sign.

I’ve been noticing that as the market re-forms, there are different players this time around. I’m also noticing, that while conditions improve for some, hurt, and duration, and general stress abound…..There seems to be a lot of it in transactions these days…..

So, short term outlook? Weak until memorial day weekend, given the tax credit hangover and the upward pressure on interest rates. Probably a little firming through the summer, with what appears to be decent amounts of inventory clearing, and softness in the fall, firmed up in late October by the bargain shoppers, depending on interest rates, which could be the big, big uncertainty….
I’m always amazed by people who dare to wait until the last moment…..nerves of steel those people…..

This month on the view sees a slight increase in activity, primarily around qualifying tax credit buyers. There certainly are a few of them out there.

Inventory on select properties is beginning to look thin, and (gasp!) do I sense a price uptick? Nah, not really, but there do seem to be some gaps in some areas. Unfortunately, that used to mean people would turn to properties with “flaws” and then make offers, but these days, the buyers are still waiting around…..

Many Sellers who don’t have to sell, still aren’t. That will certainly cause “select” inventory to be tight. This tightness even leads to multiple offers, which will perhaps lead to….(Gasp!) Price uptick?!…….

Nah, headfake again.

It’s a bit funny, we have Buyers, we have Sellers. Select Seller’s properties aren’t fitting Buyers filters, so we have lots of inventory that is just sitting…………Buyer thinks they should “get a deal” and wait for the best property, select Seller thinks, “I don’t really have to/want to sell” and sits on their pricing. Some Sellers, however, need to sell their property……..and eventually get there, but in the process, turn off the select Seller even more……Not sure where that ultimately leads……………Tight select inventory, soft prices. Hmmmmm.

I suspect the Tax Credit will again be extended until the end of the year, there’s just too much weakness out there still. It’s made it’s way into the HR market, but the damage is still contained…. I still have my concerns about the Balance sheets of many banks and their foreclosures, but that’s finally been picked up in the national news, so I’ll lay off that topic for awhile.

Unless there’s a giant flush of inventory on the market starting in April (an event that commonly occurs) we are going to start seeing some choppy issues in pricing with a bias towards strength. It probably wont lead to anything (see above) and there’s a school of thought that says that will be the “market action” for the entire year. I’m not that much of a doomsayer, but I’m certainly ready for it. A double dip recession is still a very real possibility………

The Reformed Good Faith Estimate forms are apparently, not open to revision for the next year. Ouch. That’s going to confuse a lot of people. Get ready for it. It will probably create a whole new way of doing business for the mortgage brokers. Currently, a few of them have attempted a run at a 30 day close…but so far, I don’t think anyone has made it…..Still, expect 40-45 days for just about any close except the most vanilla….(20% down, newer property with good comps and the inspector waiting to do the inspection the day you ink the deal….and I think 30 days is doable)

Summer looks to be reasonable for us, and for Hood River. Early season warm days have brought everyone out of hibernation, and it’s good to see the snowbirds returning….Nice to get out in our garden too! See you next month when we’ll have a good idea of the Summer inventory levels. If they are low, prices will stiffen. If they are high………..look out below! (Select Inventory depending…..)

And so, on to the market…..Well, we received the monthly sales report form January, and it was sort of……well basically nothing. Trendless…….Volume was up, but we knew that. All segments fired, so that’s cool, but nothing really giving indication that there’s anything but people finally deciding to move forward…..no hot neighborhoods, no hot pricing segments…….Awash in vanilla!

I follow a blog called The Portland Housing Blog, and this week they tipped me off to a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco About bankruptcies (residential and commercial) and it’s broken out by state, and region. Great stuff! I posted the link on my facebook feed…. It has past and future heat maps for both commercial and residential, and it says, among other things….this. “Be glad you are not Deschutes county Oregon, or Clark County Washington” Seriously……it basically does.

Outlook for March? Pretty busy, still a fair bit of uncertainty, and Boy, when your closing timelines suddenly jump from 30 days to 60 days, that sure can put a crimp in your cash flow! Even with the activity, I couldn’t tell you where the hot sector is going to be. Could be back in the under 300 range again, as a push of young buyers looks to make their move. Most of the young buyers though are still just trying to keep their jobs…..There’s a few people who are losing their homes (walking away? Gasp!) in this market. It’s still contained, but I think the duration is finally taking it’s toll. These are not speculators; they are hard working people who have lost jobs….and that’s just plainly unfortunate.

I think we will see a decent push of new families (yaay! Houses over $400!) around the spring break, and I continue to get the “Dude, I’m punching out” e-mails and phone calls. There’s a lot of ex financial types who are looking to create a new life out in the west……….

But still, there’s that uncertainty out there.  And how. Some of it is media bloviating, but I swear, I’ve got that “other shoe” feeling that I just can’t shake. Maybe it’s commercial…Dunno. (I should comment that the feeling has waned in the last few days…)

See you next month, and we are really looking forward to April and May, as we gear up to post some good numbers….how could they be bad?! Been down so long, looks like up, to me…..Go Big Red!

I think they’ll get there, but the revisions, can’t come soon enough.

Near as I can figure, a mortgage broker will need a worksheet on the front end to explain all the terms to a borrower. Then they will have the required GFE (which they can’t change much, and in some spots its just indecipherable, but I KNOW the people responsible for this already know this) and then they will have to have a settlement sheet to explain what the GFE really says and what the borrowers need to do in order to close.

Oh, and you can’t get a GFE anymore without an actual property, and an actual purchase price….so, you most likely have to get a “quote worksheet” when you get preapproved, do the deal,  get through inspections, and THEN fire up the mortgage brokers to quote rates and closing costs for you…..

Bottom line, If your Realtor can’t explain this stuff to you, get another Realtor. As of right now, I think I could explain it to you….but I honestly couldn’t swear it. Don’t fire me!

This and a few things will push out closings for a bit, and then they’ll snap back to the usual 30 days after awhile. Why, I just closed one today that too exactly 29 days….clean and simple. (actually they had the home inspection completed before the offer, so…..that was cheating a bit.

Banks are still defending their liquidity, and I’m finally seeing big media pick up on the fact that the banks are still playing a bit of a shell game.  They still have to lend, however, so they are being picky, picky, picky……

Our local bank bit the farm this week too. Not that it was a huge surprise, but…..it was a big surprise.

I fully suspect the home owner’s tax credit program to be extended, things are just not healthy enough yet. I suspect that the secondary market buying programs will continue as well, probably until the end of 2010.  That’s just me guessing, but I’m seeing a recovery, but not an improvement. (Recovery= market reassembles itself with moderately sane people in it trading at arms length. Improvement=anything resembling firming, like price uptick, volume uptick for multiple months, of heaven forbid, multiple buyers again. I can dream can’t I?)

There seems to have been another round of capitulation in the market too, in January. Price reductions have happened, but when there’s no market (or the sector is hibernating) there’s just no market. And it opens the door to the other scary question (what’s the value of a property when there’s no market?) I suspect this will continue until March, when all those discounted places will get snapped up, and we’ll have another round of firming, there will be an even bigger flush of new properties, and then….well, you get the picture.

Hey, at least stuff is selling.

About the kookiest thing to come out of the prior RESPA reforms (actually the HVCC) is the completely random lowest cost provider Appraisers. In a market where the HVCC is supposed to reduce the chance of coercion, I’m commonly asked by appraisers who are not from the local area what good comps are for their target homes. They don’t know or understand the market, and subsequently come up with some of the most random valuations I’ve ever seen. Apparently, being a local appraiser doesn’t count for anything anymore. It’s pretty hilarious, and a glaring flaw in the theory versus reality. I’m confident it will change over time, as a lot of the appraisers from out of the area have determined that the travel time is too great, and have given up.

And finally, check out the FB page for Copperwest. There are three good topics on there, including the morality of walking away, a recent report indicating that housing sizes are shrinking, but that the kitchen is still king, and…..the 2009 Home remodelers report, which tells you what you can expect to get out or any remodel by type and region, great stuff at Copperwest.com, and It’s going to be even Bettter Next Month!

Great article by Roger Lowenstein. Think about it….

I think these are going to be dealt with by recasting, or placing them somewhere else on the balance sheet (That is not distressed) so they can let them through at a trickle, and try to limit the damage…..I cant tell you how many people are technically in default on loans around here and their bank is doing basically nothing. If you are in financial trouble in this market, I’d bet you could effectively “homebrew” your own restructuring yourself, before the banks even get around to processing your foreclosure.

This month also marks the annual remodeler’s report . I used to follow this report (but stopped for a number of years, while “remodeling” was passe), which is used to help people decide how much money a remodel will add to their properties value. Since the Last time I looked at it, it’s gone quite high tech! The Link to it is located at Copperwest.com here. It breaks stuff out by City, region and project, including trend indicators….total timesink, be careful!

2010 is looking to be a recovery year. Still brutal, I’m sure, but hopefully we’ll get better as the year continues on, and actually be posting news about decent markets and volumes……That would be a long time coming!

Happy New Year!

Things are quieting down; the last of the fall push is getting through. There are still buyers in the marketplace, buy they seem to be doing reconnaissance for early January. Lenders continue to be harsh, and I’m starting to determine that there is some sort of secondary market negotiation going on. It appears that one day a lender will let something through without a comment, and on another, they will call it out. I can tell the items that are getting called out are not related to any sort of government guaranteed program, so I’m left thinking that it’s some sort of other underwriting standard, especially with the appearance of randomness. Take away? MAKE SURE you have a strong lending package before you start looking for a home, and MAKE SURE you are looking at homes that you and your broker feel is a quality home, within the zoning of the area, and that it has at least a reasonable valid reason for being there (often called “properly entitled”)

The tax credit extension was a welcome sight, but it does appear that most of the people who could have taken advantage of the program, actually did. The new program (for current homeowners) that allows up to $6,500 in tax credit for a qualifying transaction will hopefully drive some spring sales…..

Everyone is looking to the Holidays, and getting ready for 2010, however, listing volume jumped a bit as new properties refilled the inventories. Pricing, however, remains soft.

One interesting development I read about this week is the I-banks out of New York have been buying portfolios of loans, and then segmenting them into risk groupings, and selling them off. Sounds a bit like the mortgage pools that caused the problem in the first place, but this seems to be moving the inventory out of the marketplace, which ultimately, is a good thing…..

For this month, I think we’ll take our outlook out of “prices are firming, but not rising” back down a small notch to “prices are slightly declining” although it’s a close call. Mostly seasonal…………

See you next month!