Well…..still going.

Dallas Fridley, our regional Economist wrote a stellar review of our Real Estate Marketplace. You can find it here.

Dallas does this stuff for a living, and though we are drawing slightly different conclusions, I’m thinking his data set is the county at large, while I’m allowed to be a bit more selective…..(read: I’m drinking my own kool-aid, and focusing on just the immediate Hood River City and surrounds)

Dallas is spot on with Wasco County, and the strength in average sales price in Hood River County, which showed impressive gains in May. (up 4.6% YTD) That’s probably seasonal, and the total units sold is still down, but so far, so good.

There’s been a RASH of deals this last week, and when I looked at listing numbers, a number I thought was going to explode, I found that it was, actually…..down. Not by much, mind you, but at least, I think we are not having that compounding effect of swelling inventory, and waning closings (read the “overhang overhang” comment from last month)

I wake up one morning, and I think “This is the inflection point” I wake up the next morning, and think….”uh oh” I never can tell what indicators will jump out from day to day.

I will say that the Buyers keep coming in, and people are still buying things, so, if we are selling at 2004-2005 levels in terms of units, and our total volume is only slightly off in the City of Hood River and immediate surrounds….well,

I seen worse.

Talk to you next month. June 28th. The inflection point. (As bad as the Sub Prime fall out is going to get until sometime later next year, when the second wave of it comes due, assuming workouts and bailouts haven’t softened the blow.)

What worries me now? food, water and energy. That kind of impact, however, tends to strenghten us, in an area that has it’s own food, water and power….

298 in the Hood River Market as of this morning……..As I recall, that’s over 100 units more than our historical average…..30% ish overhang……

hmmm……Soft sales cycle, inventory building up………

Why is it I always get to call it in June? Hang on, the next three weeks will be telling………..

Fortune has a great article about shifting builders styles over at KB homes. Good Read, and a decent overview about the shrinking of the american home and a return to the value of a home as a rent vs. buy decision. We’ve been pushing that for years, but now, finally, it’s getting some press.

NYT also had a great article on the delinquency rate across the Nation. the NW and North Central states all clocked in a nearly normal historical rates (under 3%) while the rest of the country…….awash in rates over 7%.

7%! Are you kidding me! That’s crazy. I must be living in a thermos.

Here’s the link to the NYT article. It’s worth it.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/06/business/06mortgage.html?scp=2&sq=delinquency&st=nyt

Here, WITH FULL CREDIT TO THE TIMES FOR THE GRAPHIC! Is the Graphic from the article……