Hood River Real Estate and Columbia Gorge Real Estate

Hmmm….We’ve been having some bouncy times lately, and my numbers are a bit rougher this month than last. Still, doable and improving.

There is so much punditry out there right now, and alot of doomsayers, but I’m just not seeing it as apocalyptic as they do. (Rick!)

I’ve been reading about Portland’s “Dead Cat Bounce” meaning their sales numbers, while increasing are still waaaay off from last years, and the rate of improvement is slowing thus….a top in the market for Portland that is much lower in previous years. So I took a look at our market. Here’s a couple of things that are immediately apparent.

Mid Columbia Region
1. Number of closed sales are down.
2. Total sales volume down 48%.

Hood River County
1. Number of closed sales are down.
2. Total sales volume is the same.

City of Hood River
1. The Number of closed sales are down.
2. The sales volume is the same.

So there you go, split decision. (Well, not really) The same volume is being split among fewer transactions. One person points to the 20% year over year drop in closed sales(in the last two months, 35% YTD) and the other, promptly points to the dollar volume closed.

The City of Hood River, however, is hanging tough, County, same story. So why is the Region down on dollar volume? Here’s why:

Skamania County? Wipeout. Klickitat County, Wipeout everywhere else except White Salmon and Bingen, which got brutalized, but survived by comparison.

I repeat, flight to quality in Hood River. In Hood River, if it’s priced that same as last year or lower, and you LIKE THE PROPERTY AND ARE WILLING TO DEAL WITH ITS IMPERFECTIONS…….

BUY IT.

See you next month. Lots of action and things shifting around. I expect we’ll see a relative increase in performance in closed sales, and dollar volume in Hood River City and County, as well as an EXPLOSION IN LISTING VOLUME.

At this point, I’m focusing inward on those areas that are the places that will thrive. Close in, Hood River. Right now, much else is a waste of resources……Expect the trend to continue as well, because no one, and I mean no one is lending to buy raw land or large tract, or other similarly unique properties.

Well, it’s a faaaast moving market out there, not in terms of deals (though that is improving) but rather in terms of perceptions, motivations, and friction. Buyers perceive the market to have much more softness ahead, but can’t explain why people are still buying properties, Sellers have motivations that are all over the map, but if they are pressured to sell, they are doing everything they can not to let on, the ones who everyone knows need bailing out, unfortunately own homes that are being highly penalized on the “quality” scale, therefore selling at a massive discount that may still not be enough. (mapped out over time, these properties make a divot in the scale….)

We are not at a capitulation point for many of these people, but signs point to late June before the next true buying opportunity comes around. July, for once could be the buying opportunity of the year, when you think about it……

This months stats are pretty bloody, but there’s still some strength in the Hood River merket. Closed numbers are down, Average price is up. (We need a housing land trust!) May’s numbers are going to show a huge jump in listings, which will mean more inventory overhang, and continuing downward pressure on prices. Here’s a stat for you: We are down 100 units closed this year in the Mid-Columbia market Last years we were at 315 closed, yet, and this year 213….

So. Not so hot, but not the gaping Maw either. Next month, we’ll be talking about the dead cat bounce…….